実測気象防災リスクプロファイル✓ 証拠グレード:Grade A(IBTrACS監査済)影響海域: west_pacific

広州(China)

緯度経度 (23.1291°N, 113.2644°E) の測地学的大圏距離計算に基づく 広州 の気象防災プロファイル。沿岸被災区分は「High Coastal Corridor」に分類。海岸地形は「South China Coastal Basin & Island Arc」に属し、Coastal flats 2–5m backed by hills; high exposure to rapid-intensification super typhoons.

過去最接近記録
90.8 km
2020 Noul
最低記録気圧
990 hPa
気圧低下による潮位上昇ポテンシャル
最大観測風速
92 km/h
観測史上最大持続風速
沿岸被災エクスポージャー区分
高リスク
NOAA IBTrACS 公式実測認証

🛰️ 歴代熱帯低気圧の空間迎撃・接近実測アーカイブ

気象庁(JMA)および公式IBTrACS最良経路データに基づく大圏球面距離計算。

サンプル: 最接近 5 記録
台風・低気圧名発生年最接近距離接近時勢力中心気圧最大風速物理的影響形態
🌀Noul(noul-2026)202090.8 kmtropical storm990 hPa83 km/h🌪️ 暴風警戒域直接直撃
🌀Saudel(saudel-2026)2020263.8 kmtropical depression996 hPa54 km/h🌊 長周期うねり及び外側降雨帯
🌀Narra(narra-2026)2020326.5 kmtropical depression1000 hPa43 km/h🌊 長周期うねり及び外側降雨帯
🌀Maysak(maysak-2026)2020469.1 kmtropical depression998 hPa54 km/h🌊 長周期うねり及び外側降雨帯
🌀Fengshen(fengshen-2025)2020536.8 kmtropical storm990 hPa92 km/h🌊 長周期うねり及び外側降雨帯
物理気象推論チェーン

物理的被災メカニズムと因果証拠チェーン

実測データから建築工学脆弱性への厳格な演繹分析。

01Shallow Bathymetry & Storm Surge Amplification

Grade A (NOAA NCEI IBTrACS / RSMC Real-Time Observation)
1. 観測事実 (FACT)

Historical tracking records verify that cyclone centers have approached within 90.8 km of the city (e.g., Noul with central pressure of 990.0 hPa and winds of 83.0 km/h).

2. 沿岸地理 (GEOGRAPHY)

South China Coastal Basin & Island Arc. Direct deep-water oceanic swell crashing onto shallow reef/bay systems.

3. 物理機構 (MECHANISM)

The inverse barometer effect (approx. 1 cm sea level rise per 1 hPa pressure drop) combined with intense onshore wind stress pushes massive water masses across shallow continental waters, preventing natural tidal egress.

4. 工学的推論 (INFERENCE)

Coastal flood gates and frontline barrier dikes experience hydrodynamic loading far exceeding normal astronomical high tides. Ground floor structures in low-elevation zones face severe submersion risks.

02Boundary Layer Wind Shear & Built Environment Drag

Grade A (Anemometer Ground Truth Archive)
1. 観測事実 (FACT)

Tropical cyclones entering the local coastal zone generate sustained gale-force winds exceeding 83.0 km/h with peak gusts surpassing 83.0 km/h.

2. 沿岸地理 (GEOGRAPHY)

Coastal flats 2–5m backed by hills; high exposure to rapid-intensification super typhoons.

3. 物理機構 (MECHANISM)

As tropical cyclone winds transition from frictionless open ocean to rugged urban coastal surfaces, intense velocity shears and canyon aerodynamic funneling develop between street canyons and high-rise clusters.

4. 工学的推論 (INFERENCE)

Roof membranes, exterior curtain glass, rooftop HVAC units, and unanchored signage are subjected to localized negative pressure suction peaks (uplift failure).

03Compound Pluvial Inundation & Riverine Backwater

Grade B (Regional Hydrological Gage Observations)
1. 観測事実 (FACT)

Slow-moving or stalling cyclones within 300 km deliver multi-day cumulative precipitation commonly exceeding 250–500 mm within 24 to 48 hours.

2. 沿岸地理 (GEOGRAPHY)

Low-lying drainage outfalls discharging directly into tidal rivers or bays with minimal hydraulic gravity gradient.

3. 物理機構 (MECHANISM)

When peak overland stormwater runoff coincides with storm surge wave setup, coastal river mouths become hydraulically choked (tailwater backwater effect), preventing stormwater egress and forcing water back into municipal conduits.

4. 工学的推論 (INFERENCE)

Inland lowlands and underpasses flood rapidly even before the storm center makes closest approach, cutting off secondary evacuation arteries.

🛡️ 地域別建築補強および避難プロトコル

現地の標高と地盤特性に合わせた防災タイムライン。

⏱️ 上陸48時間前:設備固縛・窓ガラス防護
  • •Inspect roof fastenings, remove outdoor loose debris, and seal terrace drainage grates.
  • •Deploy certified hurricane shutters or impact-rated plywood over vulnerable seaward fenestration.
  • •Verify generator fuel reserves and relocate critical utilities above the local 100-year base flood elevation.
🚨 上陸24時間前:最終安全確保・垂直避難
  • •Move all vehicles from underground parking garages to designated elevated parking structures.
  • •Prepare 72-hour emergency potable water reserves (minimum 3 liters per person per day) and non-perishable rations.
  • •Strictly comply with local emergency management mandatory evacuation orders for coastal zones A & B.

🌐 同海域沿岸都市防災ネットワーク

同一海盆内の隣接沿岸都市のリスク分析を閲覧。