Suring Panganib sa Bagyo batay sa Tunay na Datos✓ Antas ng Ebidensya: Grade A (IBTrACS Audited)Rehiyon: west_pacific

Manila(Philippines)

Geodetic risk profile para sa (14.5995°N, 120.9842°E). Ang Manila ay nauuri sa ilalim ng Extreme Frontline. Ang baybayin ay inuri bilang Archipelagic Coral Reef Shoreline & Volcanic Bay Basin. Vulnerable coastal fringes (0.5–3m elevation) with dense informal settlements along shorelines.

Pinakamalapit na Daang Bagyo
42.8 km
2020 Fengshen
Pinakamababang Presyon
950 hPa
Potensyal ng inverse barometer
Pinakamalakas na Hangin
162 km/h
Pinakamalakas na sustained wind vector
Antas ng Pagkalantad sa Baybayin
Napakataas
Na-verify ng NOAA IBTrACS

🛰️ Talaan ng mga Bagyo na Dumaan Malapit sa Lungsod

Kinalkula gamit ang opisyal na coordinate mula sa RSMC at IBTrACS.

Halimbawa: 5 Pinakamalapit na Bagyo
Pangalan ng BagyoTaonPinakamalapit na DistansyaLakas ng BagyoPresyon ng SentroBilis ng HanginEpekto sa Lupa
🌀Fengshen(fengshen-2025)202042.8 kmtropical storm1001 hPa64 km/h⚠️ Direktang Pagtama ng Eyewall (<60km)
🌀Fung-wong(fung-wong-2025)2020170.2 kmtropical depression950 hPa162 km/h🌪️ Nasa Loob ng Malakas na Hangin
🌀Maysak(maysak-2026)2020271.2 kmtropical depression1005 hPa54 km/h🌊 Daluyong ng Bagyo at Pag-ulan
🌀Kujira(kujira-2026)2020305.5 kmtropical storm998 hPa65 km/h🌊 Daluyong ng Bagyo at Pag-ulan
🌀Koto(koto-2025)2020351.2 kmtropical storm994 hPa74 km/h🌊 Daluyong ng Bagyo at Pag-ulan
Physics-Grounded Chain

Mga Mekanismo ng Panganib at Ebidensya

Pagsusuri mula sa datos ng panahon hanggang sa tibay ng mga gusali.

01Shallow Bathymetry & Storm Surge Amplification

Grade A (NOAA NCEI IBTrACS / RSMC Real-Time Observation)
1. TUNAY NA DATOS (FACT)

Historical tracking records verify that cyclone centers have approached within 42.8 km of the city (e.g., Fengshen with central pressure of 1001.0 hPa and winds of 64.0 km/h).

2. HEOGRAPIYA (GEOGRAPHY)

Archipelagic Coral Reef Shoreline & Volcanic Bay Basin. Direct exposure to West Pacific Warm Pool Super Typhoons hitting shallow coastal shoals (e.g. San Pedro Bay).

3. MEKANISMO (MECHANISM)

The inverse barometer effect (approx. 1 cm sea level rise per 1 hPa pressure drop) combined with intense onshore wind stress pushes massive water masses across shallow continental waters, preventing natural tidal egress.

4. EPEKTO SA IMPRAESTRUKTURA

Coastal flood gates and frontline barrier dikes experience hydrodynamic loading far exceeding normal astronomical high tides. Ground floor structures in low-elevation zones face severe submersion risks.

02Boundary Layer Wind Shear & Built Environment Drag

Grade A (Anemometer Ground Truth Archive)
1. TUNAY NA DATOS (FACT)

Tropical cyclones entering the local coastal zone generate sustained gale-force winds exceeding 64.0 km/h with peak gusts surpassing 64.0 km/h.

2. HEOGRAPIYA (GEOGRAPHY)

Vulnerable coastal fringes (0.5–3m elevation) with dense informal settlements along shorelines.

3. MEKANISMO (MECHANISM)

As tropical cyclone winds transition from frictionless open ocean to rugged urban coastal surfaces, intense velocity shears and canyon aerodynamic funneling develop between street canyons and high-rise clusters.

4. EPEKTO SA IMPRAESTRUKTURA

Roof membranes, exterior curtain glass, rooftop HVAC units, and unanchored signage are subjected to localized negative pressure suction peaks (uplift failure).

03Compound Pluvial Inundation & Riverine Backwater

Grade B (Regional Hydrological Gage Observations)
1. TUNAY NA DATOS (FACT)

Slow-moving or stalling cyclones within 300 km deliver multi-day cumulative precipitation commonly exceeding 250–500 mm within 24 to 48 hours.

2. HEOGRAPIYA (GEOGRAPHY)

Low-lying drainage outfalls discharging directly into tidal rivers or bays with minimal hydraulic gravity gradient.

3. MEKANISMO (MECHANISM)

When peak overland stormwater runoff coincides with storm surge wave setup, coastal river mouths become hydraulically choked (tailwater backwater effect), preventing stormwater egress and forcing water back into municipal conduits.

4. EPEKTO SA IMPRAESTRUKTURA

Inland lowlands and underpasses flood rapidly even before the storm center makes closest approach, cutting off secondary evacuation arteries.

🛡️ Gabay sa Paghahanda at Paglikas

Mga tagubilin ayon sa katangian ng lupa at baybayin ng lungsod.

⏱️ 48 Oras Bago Dumating: Pagpapatibay ng Bahay
  • •Inspect roof fastenings, remove outdoor loose debris, and seal terrace drainage grates.
  • •Deploy certified hurricane shutters or impact-rated plywood over vulnerable seaward fenestration.
  • •Verify generator fuel reserves and relocate critical utilities above the local 100-year base flood elevation.
🚨 24 Oras Bago Dumating: Ligtas na Paglikas
  • •Move all vehicles from underground parking garages to designated elevated parking structures.
  • •Prepare 72-hour emergency potable water reserves (minimum 3 liters per person per day) and non-perishable rations.
  • •Strictly comply with local emergency management mandatory evacuation orders for coastal zones A & B.

🌐 Ugnayan ng mga Baybaying Lungsod sa Rehiyon

Tingnan ang iba pang kalapit na lungsod sa parehong karagatan.

Buksan ang Risk Simulator

Tayahin ang storm surge at hangin para sa Manila.

Pinagmulan ng Datos: NOAA NCEI IBTrACS at WMO RSMC Archives.

Buksan ang Risk Simulator→